Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

This is the second book I have read, enjoyed, reviewed, and recommended by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. This book is more than a worthy follow up to Fooled by Randomness. If you have any interest in markets, predictions, probabilities, and explanations of how things really happen, then I highly recommend this book. Taleb is a totally “out-of-the-box” thinker. Taleb is an excellent raconteur and uses many sources to make some very thought-provoking points. This book is already a best-seller and it combines unique insights, controversial thinking, honesty, and is also fun to read.

The underlying thesis of this book is that causation is very complex and as a result the typical linear thinking of economists, climatologists, stock market forecasters, and political scientists is almost never correct. I found this book totally fascinating and very compelling. I hope many of you will read and enjoy it.

Just for the record, “A black Swan” is a highly improbable event with three characteristics: It is unpredictable. It carries a massive impact. And after the fact we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random and more predictable.”

Those are the criteria set forth by the author. He uses fascinating examples of how Black Swans have affected us in the past and provides a glimpse into how they may affect us in the future.

Taleb is very personable and very eclectic and this book was lots of fun to read. For example he twice quotes that estimable philosopher, Yogi Berra:

"It is tough to make predictions, especially about the future. (attributed to?) Yogi Berra

"The future ain't what is used to be." Yogi Berra

Whether or not you are serious about markets and investing, this book provides so many unique insights into a wide variety of the aspects of life that I think almost everyone would enjoy reading it.

Review by Len Oppenheim

20% off hardcover price